Derby Picks

Is picking the winner in the Kentucky Derby a hard thing to do? Not really if you know what you are doing. It is all about using statistics just like we do in picking stocks. First, eliminate the dogs just like we do in picking stocks. Top handicappers get it right at best 25% of the time. We like to think that if the work is done then the odds increase to 50%. Remember when we pick stocks we like to aim for a 75% batting average.

Horse not to bet on include Tale of Ekati, Big Truck, Smooth Air, Recapture theglory and Z Humor. These horses are all unproven and odds are too high to bet. That leaves us with 15 horses. Next we can throw out the filly Eight Belles as she is too unproven and is Hillary Clinton's pick. A great reason why this horse will not win. Now it gets tougher as we are down to 14 horses.

We need to look at trainers and jockey experience. Horses that stay based on trainer experience include Anak Nakal, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Monba, Visionaire and Cowboy Cal. Jockey experience adds in Z Fortune, Denis of Cork and Adriano. Favorites include Big Brown (aka UPS), Colonel John and Pyro. The long shot is Gayego.

The favorite is clearly Big Brown. Do we bet here? No. Why? The owners had the 4th to last pick and took the outside spot. Very cocky. This means the horse will have to move across 19 other horses to win. Unlikely. The horse may place or show but it will not win. The long shot Gayego will represent a big challenge for Big Brown as Big Brown will have to cross the path of Gayego early. Real tough.

Some when we compare experience, track conditions (good), trainer, jockey and win loss record. Who comes out on top? There is one more stat to look at the betting on Saturday. This is like tracking the options activity on a day to day basis in the stock market.

Odds that are less than 10-1 now include Eight Belles, Pyro, Big Brown and Colonel John. Horses in the 10-1 to 20-1 category include Court Vision, Z Fortune, Big Truck and Gayego. Our winner should come from here. So if we review our other paragraphs and compare statistics we come away with Colonel John as our winner in the 134th Kentucky Derby.

The long shot would be Gayego. Next we will offer a trifecta. This is where one bets on the order of first, second and third. A smart bettor would also box this bet as it pays off if all horses finish in the top three but in no order. The trifecta would be Colonel John, Big Brown and Court Vision. Good luck to all as these are simply our recommendations and hope that they help in thinking about the selection process.