Battleground Poll: This election may not be that close see below

This is from Gary Halbert's Weekly Newsletter. Great read. Interesting thoughts

Bush Should Be 10-20 Points Behind Kerry Now

With Bush having come through nothing short of a political apocalypse, and with the Democrats and the media exploiting the events to their advantage, John Kerry should be 10-20 points ahead of Bush in the polls. Bush should be down for the count. Kerry should be ahead just as Bill Clinton was against Bob Dole at this point in 1996.
Yet the race has been a statistical dead-heat in the national polls for the last several months. Over the last 2-3 weeks, Bush has actually pulled slightly ahead of Kerry in five of the last six major national polls, in some cases by more than the margin of error. Folks, this is devastatingly bad news for John Kerry and the Democrats! Any candidate worth their political salt would have been ahead of a bludgeoned and bloodied president by 10 to 15 points or more at this point. Yet the best Kerry has been able to do is stay neck and neck, and now he’s slipping behind.

The media want American voters to remain fixated on the national polls, several of which still show the race to be a statistical dead-heat. However, as I will discuss below, Bush is faring far better than Kerry in the state-by-state internal polls. If the election were held today, Bush would win by a comfortable margin as you will see.

The “Battleground Polls” Show Bush Ahead

Let’s look at some of the “internals” of the most recent Battleground Poll. The Battleground Poll is a bi-partisan poll that has a long, respected and accurate history. The most recent Battleground Poll has the following approval ratings:

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE

Bush 52%
Bush 46%

Kerry 51%
Kerry 43%



At first blush, the favorable/unfavorable ratings look to be statistically close. Yet again, we have to keep in mind that Kerry should be way ahead at this point. Instead, he is slipping.

On several of the major campaign issues, the results are surprising. For example on “keeping America prosperous” (i.e.- the economy), the latest Battleground Poll is split, with Bush 47% and Kerry 46%. That’s amazing considering this is “the worst economy since the Great Depression,” according to Kerry and the Democrats (at least until recently). Only when it comes to creating jobs does Kerry beat Bush 49% to 42%.

On dealing with Iraq, Bush leads Kerry 51% to 42%; on safeguarding America against the terrorist threat, Bush leads commandingly at 55% to 36%; and on holding the line on taxes, Bush crushes Kerry 54% to 36%. The wide spreads on those issues are, again, not good news for Kerry, but it gets even worse.

When asked who best represented the qualities of a strong leader, 54% said Bush and only 38% said Kerry. That is not good for Kerry. On who is a steady, consistent leader Bush is also in front 54% to 37%. Kerry is closer on which of them best represents “my values” with Bush at 48% and Kerry 44%. On being “honest and trustworthy,” Bush is at 45% and Kerry 42%.

However, on the critical “says what he believes,” Kerry is again crushed by Bush 57% to 34%. This coupled with Bush’s strong leadership scores helps to explain why he currently holds a fairly impressive electoral vote edge, as you will see below.

The Red States, The Blue States & The Undecideds

The general election is not a coast-to-coast popularity contest, as is the case with the national polls. Instead, the presidential election is a series of 50 individual state elections where the winner takes all. It is the Electoral College vote that decides the president, as it has throughout our nation’s history. This is why the real story lies in the state-by-state polls, more so than the national polls.

The so-called “Red States” are those believed to be solidly locked up by Bush. They include AK, AL, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VI and WY. These 22 Bush states total 190 electoral votes.

The “Blue States” are those believed to be solidly locked up by Kerry. They include CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, RI and VT. These 11 Kerry states and DC total 168 electoral votes.

There are good sources for tracking state-by-state polling. These polls are run by professional organizations that are respected and reliable. One of the best places to find a consolidation of state-by-state polling is at Real Clear Politics. Their polling center can be found at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html. Actually, realclearpolitics.com is one of my favorite websites for political commentary.

Lets look at the so-called “battleground states” to see who is ahead where and why. For purposes of this discussion, the battleground states are those in which the presidential vote could go either way.

Broadly speaking, there are 17 possible battleground states including AR, AZ, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI and WV. As noted above, the remaining states are believed to be solidly locked up by Bush and Kerry.

In the 2000 election, Bush won eight battleground states (AK, AZ, FL, MO, NV, NH, OH and WV), while Gore won the other nine. So far the split looks similar, but there are some very interesting differences.

Here are Bush’s current standings in the eight battleground states he won in 2000. AK, less than 2% down but within the margin of error (typically + or – 3 to 4 points). AZ,12 points ahead, well beyond the margin of error. FL ranges from +10 points ahead for Bush to dead even. MO, two points ahead but within the margin of error. NV, three points ahead but within the margin of error. NH, four points behind but within the margin of error. OH, four points ahead but within the margin of error. WV, six points ahead, beyond the margin of error.

Given the recent rocky times for the Bush administration, these standings are not too shabby. Those states total 88 electoral votes, with Bush currently winning 78 of them. Now lets look at how Kerry is doing in the “blue” states that Gore won in 2000.

Starting with IA, Kerry is up by two points (Gore won by 1 point in 2000), which is well within the margin of error. In ME, Kerry is up by two and a half points, again within the margin of error. MN has Kerry well ahead, outstripping the slim Gore victory there in 2000. Not bad so far, until we come to MI, where Kerry trails Bush by a narrow margin. Bad news here since MI is a must win for Kerry, he cannot be elected without it.

Grim news from PA as well, where Bush leads beyond the margin of error. These two states represent 38 electoral votes that Kerry absolutely must have in order to win. Fortunately for Kerry, he is well ahead in the remainder of the blue battleground states.

In all, this gives Kerry a battleground state electoral vote total of 54. Even if you give him the 10 leaning votes from the Bush states, Kerry is still 14 electoral votes behind in the battleground states: Bush 78, Kerry 64.

So why is Bush running ahead in Democratic strongholds like MI, PA, and OH, all states heavily hit with unemployment? I can only speculate, but I think it goes back to the issues pointed out above - leadership, trust, terrorism, etc. - and Kerry’s inability to inspire big labor. Kerry has also failed to articulate a coherent and passionate national message. As one political commentator recently put it, hating George Bush will only get you so far and it certainly won’t get you elected president.

All in all, an unpleasant picture is emerging for the Democrats and Kerry. You can see that while the national polls are close, they are not the best indicator of how well a candidate will do in the Electoral College.

Despite what you have heard in the mainstream media, if the election were held today, Bush would win. Here are the projected electoral vote totals based on the most recent states polling data: BUSH 322 / KERRY 216.

This outcome includes giving Kerry the 10 electoral votes noted above from the blue states which are currently leaning toward Kerry. By the way, political commentators Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracke did a similar state-by-state analysis over the holiday weekend. Their projection: BUSH 318 / KERRY 220.